-
Multicenter Study
Mortality risk prediction in scleroderma-related interstitial lung disease: the SADL model.
- Julie Morisset, Eric Vittinghoff, Brett M Elicker, Xiaowen Hu, Stephanie Le, Jay H Ryu, Kirk D Jones, Anna Haemel, Jeffrey A Golden, Francesco Boin, Brett Ley, Paul J Wolters, Talmadge E King, Harold R Collard, and Joyce S Lee.
- Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA. Electronic address: julie.morisset@umontreal.ca.
- Chest. 2017 Nov 1; 152 (5): 999-1007.
BackgroundInterstitial lung disease (ILD) is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with scleroderma (Scl). Risk prediction and prognostication in patients with Scl-ILD are challenging because of heterogeneity in the disease course.MethodsWe aimed to develop a clinical mortality risk prediction model for Scl-ILD. Patients with Scl-ILD were identified from two ongoing longitudinal cohorts: 135 patients at the University of California, San Francisco (derivation cohort) and 90 patients at the Mayo Clinic (validation cohort). Using these two separate cohorts, a mortality risk prediction model was developed and validated by testing every potential candidate Cox model, each including three or four variables of a possible 19 clinical predictors, for time to death. Model discrimination was assessed using the C-index.ResultsThree variables were included in the final risk prediction model (SADL): ever smoking history, age, and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (% predicted). This continuous model had similar performance in the derivation (C-index, 0.88) and validation (C-index, 0.84) cohorts. We created a point scoring system using the combined cohort (C-index, 0.82) and used it to identify a classification with low, moderate, and high mortality risk at 3 years.ConclusionsThe SADL model uses simple, readily accessible clinical variables to predict all-cause mortality in Scl-ILD.Copyright © 2017 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Notes
Knowledge, pearl, summary or comment to share?You can also include formatting, links, images and footnotes in your notes
- Simple formatting can be added to notes, such as
*italics*
,_underline_
or**bold**
. - Superscript can be denoted by
<sup>text</sup>
and subscript<sub>text</sub>
. - Numbered or bulleted lists can be created using either numbered lines
1. 2. 3.
, hyphens-
or asterisks*
. - Links can be included with:
[my link to pubmed](http://pubmed.com)
- Images can be included with:
![alt text](https://bestmedicaljournal.com/study_graph.jpg "Image Title Text")
- For footnotes use
[^1](This is a footnote.)
inline. - Or use an inline reference
[^1]
to refer to a longer footnote elseweher in the document[^1]: This is a long footnote.
.