• CMAJ · Jun 2020

    Estimation of COVID-19-induced depletion of hospital resources in Ontario, Canada.

    • Kali Barrett, Yasin A Khan, Stephen Mac, Raphael Ximenes, Naimark David M J DMJ Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation (Barrett, Khan, Mac, Naimark, Sander), University of Toronto; University Health Network (Barre, and Beate Sander.
    • Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation (Barrett, Khan, Mac, Naimark, Sander), University of Toronto; University Health Network (Barrett, Khan, Ximenes); Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) collaborative (Mac, Ximenes, Sander), University Health Network; Sunnybrook Hospital (Naimark), Toronto, Ont.
    • CMAJ. 2020 Jun 15; 192 (24): E640-E646.

    BackgroundThe global spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues in several jurisdictions, causing substantial strain to health care systems. The purpose of our study was to predict the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on patient outcomes and use of hospital resources in Ontario, Canada.MethodsWe developed an individual-level simulation to model the flow of patients with COVID-19 through the hospital system in Ontario. We simulated different combined scenarios of epidemic trajectory and hospital health care capacity. Our outcomes included the number of patients who needed admission to the ward or to the intensive care unit (ICU) with or without the need for mechanical ventilation, number of days to resource depletion, number of patients awaiting resources and number of deaths.ResultsWe found that with effective early public health measures, hospital system resources would not be depleted. For scenarios with late or ineffective implementation of physical distancing, hospital resources would be depleted within 14-26 days, and in the worst case scenario, 13 321 patients would die while waiting for needed resources. Resource depletion would be avoided or delayed with aggressive measures to increase ICU, ventilator and acute care hospital capacities.InterpretationWe found that without aggressive physical distancing measures, the Ontario hospital system would have been inadequately equipped to manage the expected number of patients with COVID-19 despite a rapid increase in capacity. This lack of hospital resources would have led to an increase in mortality. By slowing the spread of the disease using public health measures and by increasing hospital capacity, Ontario may have avoided catastrophic stresses to its hospitals.© 2020 Joule Inc. or its licensors.

      Pubmed     Free full text   Copy Citation     Plaintext  

      Add institutional full text...

    Notes

     
    Knowledge, pearl, summary or comment to share?
    300 characters remaining
    help        
    You can also include formatting, links, images and footnotes in your notes
    • Simple formatting can be added to notes, such as *italics*, _underline_ or **bold**.
    • Superscript can be denoted by <sup>text</sup> and subscript <sub>text</sub>.
    • Numbered or bulleted lists can be created using either numbered lines 1. 2. 3., hyphens - or asterisks *.
    • Links can be included with: [my link to pubmed](http://pubmed.com)
    • Images can be included with: ![alt text](https://bestmedicaljournal.com/study_graph.jpg "Image Title Text")
    • For footnotes use [^1](This is a footnote.) inline.
    • Or use an inline reference [^1] to refer to a longer footnote elseweher in the document [^1]: This is a long footnote..

    hide…

Want more great medical articles?

Keep up to date with a free trial of metajournal, personalized for your practice.
1,624,503 articles already indexed!

We guarantee your privacy. Your email address will not be shared.