BMJ : British medical journal
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Review Meta Analysis
A systematic review of physicians' survival predictions in terminally ill cancer patients.
To systematically review the accuracy of physicians' clinical predictions of survival in terminally ill cancer patients. ⋯ Although clinicians consistently overestimate survival, their predictions are highly correlated with actual survival; the predictions have discriminatory ability even if they are miscalibrated. Clinicians caring for patients with terminal cancer need to be aware of their tendency to overestimate survival, as it may affect patients' prospects for achieving a good death. Accurate prognostication models incorporating clinical prediction of survival are needed.