Anaesthesia
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Pre-operative risk stratification is a key part of the care pathway for emergency bowel surgery, as it facilitates the identification of high-risk patients. Several novel risk scores have recently been published that are designed to identify patients who are frail or significantly unwell. They can also be calculated pre-operatively from routinely collected clinical data. ⋯ The model demonstrated good discrimination and calibration (c-statistic 0.827) but was marginally outperformed by the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit score (c-statistic 0.861). All other models compared performed less well (c-statistics 0.734-0.808). Pre-operative patient vital signs, blood tests and markers of frailty can be used to accurately predict the risk of 30-day mortality after emergency bowel surgery.