PLoS medicine
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Malaria modeling can inform policy and guide research for malaria elimination and eradication from local implementation to global policy. A research and development agenda for malaria modeling is proposed, to support operations and to enhance the broader eradication research agenda. ⋯ A competitive and collaborative framework will result in policy recommendations from multiple, independently derived models and model systems that share harmonized databases. As planned, modeling results will be produced in five priority areas: (1) strategic planning to determine where and when resources should be optimally allocated to achieve eradication; (2) management plans to minimize the evolution of drug and pesticide resistance; (3) impact assessments of new and needed tools to interrupt transmission; (4) technical feasibility assessments to determine appropriate combinations of tools, an associated set of target intervention coverage levels, and the expected timelines for achieving a set of goals in different socio-ecological settings and different health systems; and (5) operational feasibility assessments to weigh the economic costs, capital investments, and human resource capacities required.
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The interruption of malaria transmission worldwide is one of the greatest challenges for international health and development communities. The current expert view suggests that, by aggressively scaling up control with currently available tools and strategies, much greater gains could be achieved against malaria, including elimination from a number of countries and regions; however, even with maximal effort we will fall short of global eradication. The Malaria Eradication Research Agenda (malERA) complements the current research agenda--primarily directed towards reducing morbidity and mortality--with one that aims to identify key knowledge gaps and define the strategies and tools that will result in reducing the basic reproduction rate to less than 1, with the ultimate aim of eradication of the parasite from the human population. Sustained commitment from local communities, civil society, policy leaders, and the scientific community, together with a massive effort to build a strong base of researchers from the endemic areas will be critical factors in the success of this new agenda.
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Health systems research and development is needed to support the global malaria eradication agenda. In this paper, we (the malERA Consultative Group on Health Systems and Operational Research) focus on the health systems needs of the elimination phase of malaria eradication and consider groupings of countries at different stages along the pathway to elimination. ⋯ We review recent technological and theoretical developments related to health systems and the renewed commitment to strengthening health systems for universal access and greater equity. Finally, we identify a number of needs for research and development, including tools for analyzing and improving effective coverage and strengthening decision making and discuss the relevance of these needs at all levels of the health system from the community to the international level.
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Different challenges are presented by the variety of malaria transmission environments present in the world today. In each setting, improved control for reduction of morbidity is a necessary first step towards the long-range goal of malaria eradication and a priority for regions where the disease burden is high. For many geographic areas where transmission rates are low to moderate, sustained and well-managed application of currently available tools may be sufficient to achieve local elimination. ⋯ For other low-to-moderate transmission regions, notably areas where the vectors exhibit behaviours such as outdoor feeding and resting that are not well targeted by current strategies, new interventions that target predictable features of the biology/ecologies of the local vectors will be required. To achieve elimination in areas where high levels of transmission are sustained by very efficient vector species, radically new interventions that significantly reduce the vectorial capacity of wild populations will be needed. Ideally, such interventions should be implemented with a one-time application with a long-lasting impact, such as genetic modification of the vectorial capacity of the wild vector population.