PLoS medicine
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Expanded access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) using universal test and treat (UTT) has been suggested as a strategy to eliminate HIV in South Africa within 7 y based on an influential mathematical modeling study. However, the underlying deterministic model was criticized widely, and other modeling studies did not always confirm the study's finding. The objective of our study is to better understand the implications of different model structures and assumptions, so as to arrive at the best possible predictions of the long-term impact of UTT and the possibility of elimination of HIV. ⋯ Our results confirm previous predictions that the HIV epidemic in South Africa can be eliminated through universal testing and immediate treatment at 90% coverage. However, more realistic models show that elimination is likely to occur at a much later point in time than the initial model suggested. Also, UTT is a cost-effective intervention, but less cost-effective than previously predicted because the current South African ART treatment policy alone could already drive HIV into elimination. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.
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Comment
Modelling the strategic use of antiretroviral therapy for the treatment and prevention of HIV.
Nathan Ford and Gottfried Hirnschall reflect on recent research by Jan Hontelez and colleagues published in this week's PLOS Medicine. The authors argue that the future HIV modeling efforts should focus on helping programs make choices about which interventions need to be prioritized in order to achieve the levels of enrollment and retention in care required to maximize the prevention benefit of ART. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.
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David Boulware discusses the challenges of diagnosing tuberculous meningitis and the implications of the study by Patel and colleagues using the Xpert MTB/RIF assay for diagnosis. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.
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Access to unpublished clinical study reports (CSRs) is currently being discussed as a means to allow unbiased evaluation of clinical research. The Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Health Care (IQWiG) routinely requests CSRs from manufacturers for its drug assessments. Our objective was to determine the information gain from CSRs compared to publicly available sources (journal publications and registry reports) for patient-relevant outcomes included in IQWiG health technology assessments (HTAs) of drugs. ⋯ In contrast to CSRs, publicly available sources provide insufficient information on patient-relevant outcomes of clinical trials. CSRs should therefore be made publicly available. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.
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Seye Abimbola and colleagues provide a view from Nigeria, Pakistan, and Afghanistan on global efforts to eradicate polio in those countries. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.