PLoS medicine
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Sanjay Basu and colleagues explain how models are increasingly used to inform public health policy yet readers may struggle to evaluate the quality of models. All models require simplifying assumptions, and there are tradeoffs between creating models that are more "realistic" versus those that are grounded in more solid data. Indeed, complex models are not necessarily more accurate or reliable simply because they can more easily fit real-world data than simpler models can. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.
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Access to unpublished clinical study reports (CSRs) is currently being discussed as a means to allow unbiased evaluation of clinical research. The Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Health Care (IQWiG) routinely requests CSRs from manufacturers for its drug assessments. Our objective was to determine the information gain from CSRs compared to publicly available sources (journal publications and registry reports) for patient-relevant outcomes included in IQWiG health technology assessments (HTAs) of drugs. ⋯ In contrast to CSRs, publicly available sources provide insufficient information on patient-relevant outcomes of clinical trials. CSRs should therefore be made publicly available. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.
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Adithya Cattamanchi and colleagues reflect on recent research by Michael Levin and coworkers into the use of whole blood mRNA expression signatures to detect tuberculosis. The authors highlight challenges faced in getting this promising technology into clinics in low-resource settings. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.
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Influenza vaccine policies that maximise health benefit through efficient use of limited resources are needed. Generally, influenza vaccination programmes have targeted individuals 65 y and over and those at risk, according to World Health Organization recommendations. We developed methods to synthesise the multiplicity of surveillance datasets in order to evaluate how changing target populations in the seasonal vaccination programme would affect infection rate and mortality. ⋯ This study proposes a framework to integrate influenza surveillance data into transmission models. Application to data from England and Wales confirms the role of children as key infection spreaders. The most efficient use of vaccine to reduce overall influenza morbidity and mortality is thus to target children in addition to older adults. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.
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Comment
Modelling the strategic use of antiretroviral therapy for the treatment and prevention of HIV.
Nathan Ford and Gottfried Hirnschall reflect on recent research by Jan Hontelez and colleagues published in this week's PLOS Medicine. The authors argue that the future HIV modeling efforts should focus on helping programs make choices about which interventions need to be prioritized in order to achieve the levels of enrollment and retention in care required to maximize the prevention benefit of ART. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.