Internal and emergency medicine
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Coronavirus 2019 disease (COVID-19) continues to challenge healthcare systems globally as many countries are currently experiencing an increase in the morbidity and mortality. Compare baseline characteristics, clinical presentation, treatments, and clinical outcomes of patients admitted during the second peak to those admitted during the first peak. Retrospective analysis of 258 COVID-19 patients consecutively admitted to the Tel Aviv Medical Center, of which, 131 during the first peak (March 21-May 30, 2020) and 127 during the second peak (May 31-July 16, 2020). ⋯ Compared to the first peak, 30-day mortality and invasive mechanical ventilation rates as well as adjusted risk were significantly lower during the second peak (10.2%, vs 19.8% vs p = 0.028, adjusted HR 0.39, 95% CI 0.19-0.79, p = 0.009 and 8.8% vs 19.3%, p = 0.002, adjusted HR 0.29, 95% CI 0.13-0.64, p = 0.002; respectively). Rates of 30-day mortality and invasive mechanical ventilation, as well as adjusted risks, were lower in the second peak of the COVID-19 pandemic among hospitalized patients. The change in treatment strategy and the experienced gained during the first peak may have contributed to the improved outcomes.
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The accurate prediction of likely discharges and estimates of length of stay (LOS) aid in effective hospital administration and help to prevent access block. Machine learning (ML) may be able to help with these tasks. For consecutive patients admitted under General Medicine at the Royal Adelaide Hospital over an 8-month period, daily ward round notes and relevant discrete data fields were collected from the electronic medical record. ⋯ The generation of an exact EDD remains inaccurate. This study has shown that repeated estimates of LOS using daily ward round notes and mixed-data inputs are effective in the prediction of general medicine discharges in the next 48 h. Further research may seek to prospectively and externally validate models for prediction of upcoming discharge, as well as combination human-ML approaches for generating EDDs.
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Letter Historical Article
Erysipelas over the centuries: notes from the history of popes.