Anesthesia and analgesia
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Anesthesia and analgesia · Jun 2021
Comparative StudyDeveloping a Clinical Prediction Score: Comparing Prediction Accuracy of Integer Scores to Statistical Regression Models.
Researchers often convert prediction tools built on statistical regression models into integer scores and risk classification systems in the name of simplicity. However, this workflow discards useful information and reduces prediction accuracy. We, therefore, investigated the impact on prediction accuracy when researchers simplify a regression model into an integer score using a simulation study and an example clinical data set. ⋯ Converting a regression model to an integer score decreases model performance considerably. Therefore, we recommend developing a regression model that incorporates all available information to make the most accurate predictions possible, and using the unaltered regression model when making predictions for individual patients. In all cases, researchers should be mindful that they correctly validate the specific model that is intended for clinical use.