Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
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The COVID-19 pandemic is causing a catastrophic increase in US mortality. How does the scale of this pandemic compare to another US catastrophe: racial inequality? Using demographic models, I estimate how many excess White deaths would raise US White mortality to the best-ever (lowest) US Black level under alternative, plausible assumptions about the age patterning of excess mortality in 2020. I find that 400,000 excess White deaths would be needed to equal the best mortality ever recorded among Blacks. ⋯ Even amid COVID-19, US White mortality is likely to be less than what US Blacks have experienced every year. I argue that, if Black disadvantage operates every year on the scale of Whites' experience of COVID-19, then so too should the tools we deploy to fight it. Our imagination should not be limited by how accustomed the United States is to profound racial inequality.
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Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. · Sep 2020
Physician-patient racial concordance and disparities in birthing mortality for newborns.
Recent work has emphasized the benefits of patient-physician concordance on clinical care outcomes for underrepresented minorities, arguing it can ameliorate outgroup biases, boost communication, and increase trust. We explore concordance in a setting where racial disparities are particularly severe: childbirth. ⋯ Results further suggest that these benefits manifest during more challenging births and in hospitals that deliver more Black babies. We find no significant improvement in maternal mortality when birthing mothers share race with their physician.
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Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. · Aug 2020
Haplotype networks of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the Diamond Princess cruise ship outbreak.
The Diamond Princess cruise ship was put under quarantine offshore Yokohama, Japan, after a passenger who disembarked in Hong Kong was confirmed as a coronavirus disease 2019 case. We performed whole-genome sequencing of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) directly from PCR+ clinical specimens and conducted a phylogenetic analysis of the outbreak. ⋯ Although further spreading might have been prevented by quarantine, some progeny clusters could be linked to transmission through mass-gathering events in the recreational areas and direct transmission among passengers who shared cabins during the quarantine. This study demonstrates the usefulness of haplotype network/phylogeny analysis in identifying potential infection routes.
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Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. · Aug 2020
Timing social distancing to avert unmanageable COVID-19 hospital surges.
Following the April 16, 2020 release of the Opening Up America Again guidelines for relaxing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) social distancing policies, local leaders are concerned about future pandemic waves and lack robust strategies for tracking and suppressing transmission. Here, we present a strategy for triggering short-term shelter-in-place orders when hospital admissions surpass a threshold. ⋯ Assuming that the relaxation of social distancing increases the risk of infection sixfold, the optimal strategy will trigger a total of 135 d (90% prediction interval: 126 d to 141 d) of sheltering, allow schools to open in the fall, and result in an expected 2,929 deaths (90% prediction interval: 2,837 to 3,026) by September 2021, which is 29% of the annual mortality rate. In the months ahead, policy makers are likely to face difficult choices, and the extent of public restraint and cocooning of vulnerable populations may save or cost thousands of lives.
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Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. · Jul 2020
Tracking the reach of COVID-19 kin loss with a bereavement multiplier applied to the United States.
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to a large increase in mortality in the United States and around the world, leaving many grieving the sudden loss of family members. We created an indicator-the COVID-19 bereavement multiplier-that estimates the average number of individuals who will experience the death of a close relative (defined as a grandparent, parent, sibling, spouse, or child) for each COVID-19 death. Using demographic microsimulation-based estimates of kinship networks in the United States, the clear age gradient in COVID-19 mortality seen across contexts, and several hypothetical infection prevalence scenarios, we estimate COVID-19 bereavement multipliers for White and Black individuals in the United States. ⋯ We demonstrate that our estimates of the bereavement multiplier are stable across epidemiological realities, including infection scenarios, total number of deaths, and the distribution of deaths, which means researchers can estimate the bereavement burden over the course of the epidemic in lockstep with rising death tolls. In addition, we provide estimates of bereavement multipliers by age group, types of kin loss, and race to illuminate prospective disparities. The bereavement multiplier is a useful indicator for tracking COVID-19's multiplicative impact as it reverberates across American families and can be tailored to other causes of death.