Croatian medical journal
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Croatian medical journal · Apr 2020
Application of a system dynamics model in forecasting the supply and age distribution of physicians.
To predict the future supply and age distribution of physicians with a simulation model, which can be used as an advising tool for policymakers who decide on enrollment and specialization training (ST) quotas at the national level. ⋯ There is no need to increase the enrollment into the medical schools to ensure sufficient number of physicians per capita in Croatia, but it is necessary to keep the recently reached level of 550 licenses for ST per year. The developed dynamic model is available online and can be adapted to the analysis of different scenarios in different health care systems.