CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne
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Prior research has consistently shown that the heaviest users account for a disproportionate share of health care costs. As such, predicting high-cost users may be a precondition for cost containment. We evaluated the ability of a new health risk predictive modelling tool, which was developed by the Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI), to identify future high-cost cases. ⋯ The CIHI Population Grouping Methodology was designed to predict the average user of health care services, yet performed adequately for predicting high-cost users. Although we recommend the development of a purpose-designed tool to improve model performance, the existing CIHI Population Grouping Methodology may be used - as is or in concert with additional information - for many applications requiring prediction of future high-cost users.