British journal of anaesthesia
-
Bayesian methods, with the predictive probability (PredP), allow multiple interim analyses with interim posterior probability (PostP) computation, without the need to correct for multiple looks at the data. The objective of this paper was to illustrate the use of PredP by simulating a sequential analysis of a clinical trial. ⋯ Based on these interim analyses, we can conclude with a sufficiently high probability that the equivalence would have been met on the primary outcome before the predetermined end of this particular trial. If a Bayesian approach using PredP had been used, it would have allowed an early termination of the trial by reducing the calculated sample size by 15-20%.
-
Observational Study
Association between cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers of neuronal injury or amyloidosis and cognitive decline after major surgery.
Postoperative neurocognitive decline is a frequent complication in adult patients undergoing major surgery with increased risk for morbidity and mortality. The mechanisms behind cognitive decline after anaesthesia and surgery are not known. We studied the association between CSF and blood biomarkers of neuronal injury or brain amyloidosis and long-term changes in neurocognitive function. ⋯ The findings of the present explorative study showed that major orthopaedic surgery causes a release of CSF markers of neural injury and brain amyloidosis, suggesting neuronal damage or stress. We were unable to detect an association between the magnitude of biomarker changes and long-term postoperative neurocognitive dysfunction.