Ground water
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Testing of 1701 water wells in northeastern Pennsylvania shows that methane is ubiquitous in groundwater, with higher concentrations observed in valleys vs. upland areas and in association with calcium-sodium-bicarbonate, sodium-bicarbonate, and sodium-chloride rich waters--indicating that, on a regional scale, methane concentrations are best correlated to topographic and hydrogeologic features, rather than shale-gas extraction. In addition, our assessment of isotopic and molecular analyses of hydrocarbon gases in the Dimock Township suggest that gases present in local water wells are most consistent with Middle and Upper Devonian gases sampled in the annular spaces of local gas wells, as opposed to Marcellus Production gas. Combined, these findings suggest that the methane concentrations in Susquehanna County water wells can be explained without the migration of Marcellus shale gas through fractures, an observation that has important implications for understanding the nature of risks associated with shale-gas extraction.
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An open problem that arises when using modern iterative linear solvers, such as the preconditioned conjugate gradient method or Generalized Minimum RESidual (GMRES) method, is how to choose the residual tolerance in the linear solver to be consistent with the tolerance on the solution error. This problem is especially acute for integrated groundwater models, which are implicitly coupled to another model, such as surface water models, and resolve both multiple scales of flow and temporal interaction terms, giving rise to linear systems with variable scaling. This article uses the theory of "forward error bound estimation" to explain the correspondence between the residual error in the preconditioned linear system and the solution error. ⋯ We implemented a preconditioned GMRES algorithm and benchmarked it against the Successive Over-Relaxation (SOR) method, the most widely known iterative solver for nonsymmetric coefficient matrices. With forward error control, GMRES can easily replace the SOR method in legacy groundwater modeling packages, resulting in the overall simulation speedups as large as 7.74×. This research is expected to broadly impact groundwater modelers through the demonstration of a practical and general approach for setting the residual tolerance in line with the solution error tolerance and presentation of GMRES performance benchmarking results.
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The values of parameters in a groundwater flow model govern the precision of predictions of future system behavior. Predictive precision, thus, typically depends on an ability to infer values of system properties from historical measurements through calibration. When such data are scarce, or when their information content with respect to parameters that are most relevant to predictions of interest is weak, predictive uncertainty may be high, even if the model is "calibrated." Recent advances help recognize this condition, quantitatively evaluate predictive uncertainty, and suggest a path toward improved predictive accuracy by identifying sources of predictive uncertainty and by determining what observations will most effectively reduce this uncertainty. ⋯ Linear analysis yields contributions made by each parameter to a prediction's uncertainty and the worth of different observations, both existing and yet-to-be-gathered, toward reducing this uncertainty. Nonlinear analysis provides more accurate characterization of the uncertainty of model predictions while yielding their (approximate) probability distribution functions. This article applies the above methods to a prediction of specific discharge and confirms the uncertainty bounds on specific discharge supplied in the Yucca Mountain Project License Application.
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Sulfate (S and O) isotopes used in conjunction with sulfate concentration provide a tracer for ground water contributions to base flow. They are particularly useful in areas where rock sources of contrasting S isotope character are juxtaposed, where water chemistry or H and O isotopes fail to distinguish water sources, and in arid areas where rain water contributions to base flow are minimal. Sonoita Creek basin in southern Arizona, where evaporite and igneous sources of sulfur are commonly juxtaposed, serves as an example. ⋯ Source A contributes 50% to 70%, with the remainder equally divided between B and C during the base flow seasons. The proportion of B generally increases downstream. The proportion of A is greatest under drought conditions.
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Israel and the Palestinian Authority share the southern Mediterranean coastal aquifer. Long-term overexploitation in the Gaza Strip has resulted in a decreasing water table, accompanied by the degradation of its water quality. Due to high levels of salinity and nitrate and boron pollution, most of the ground water is inadequate for both domestic and agricultural consumption. ⋯ As a result, the southern coastal aquifer does not resemble a classic "upstream-downstream" dispute because Israel's pumping of the saline ground water reduces the salinization rates of ground water in the Gaza Strip. Simulation of different pumping scenarios using a monolayer, hydrodynamic, two-dimensional model (MARTHE) confirms the hypothesis that increasing pumping along the Gaza Strip border combined with a moderate reduction of pumping within the Gaza Strip would improve ground water quality within the Gaza Strip. We find that pumping the saline ground water for a source of reverse-osmosis desalination and then supplying the desalinated water to the Gaza Strip should be an essential component of a future joint management strategy between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.