Eurosurveillance
-
We analyse up-to-date epidemiological data of the Ebola virus disease outbreak in Nigeria as of 1 October 2014 in order to estimate the case fatality rate, the proportion of healthcare workers infected and the transmission tree. We also model the impact of control interventions on the size of the epidemic. Results indicate that Nigeria’s quick and forceful implementation of control interventions was determinant in controlling the outbreak rapidly and avoiding a far worse scenario in this country.
-
Assessing the severity of emerging infections is challenging because of potential biases in case ascertainment. The first human case of infection with influenza A(H7N9) virus was identified in China in March 2013; since then, the virus has caused two epidemic waves in the country. There were 134 laboratory-confirmed cases detected in the first epidemic wave from January to September 2013. ⋯ Age-specific risks of death among hospitalised cases were also significantly higher in the second wave. Using data on symptomatic cases identified through national sentinel influenza-like illness surveillance, we estimated that the risk of death among symptomatic cases of infection with influenza A(H7N9) virus was 0.10% (95% credibility interval: 0.029-3.6%), which was similar to previous estimates for the first epidemic wave of human infections with influenza A(H7N9) virus in 2013. An increase in the risk of death among hospitalised cases in the second wave could be real because of changes in the virus, because of seasonal changes in host susceptibility to severe infection, or because of variation in treatment practices between hospitals, while the increase could be artefactual because of changes in ascertainment of cases in different areas at different times.
-
In April 2013, two members of one family were successively confirmed as cases of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus infection in Shanghai, China. Respiratory specimens from the two cases and their close contacts were tested using real-time reverse-transcription (RT)-PCR. Paired serum specimens from contacts were tested by haemagglutination inhibition assay and microneutralisation test. ⋯ The other 25 close contacts of both cases were A(H7N9) negative. Limited human-to-human transmission of the virus most likely occurred in the family cluster. However, other close contacts did not test positive for the virus, suggesting limited potential for extensive human-to-human transmission of the virus.