The Medical journal of Australia
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To analyse the outcomes of COVID-19 vaccination by vaccine type, age group eligibility, vaccination strategy, and population coverage. ⋯ Vaccinating vulnerable people first is the optimal policy when population vaccination coverage is low, but vaccinating more socially active people becomes more important as the R eff v ¯ declines and vaccination coverage increases. Assuming the most plausible R eff v ¯ of 5, vaccinating more than 85% of the population, including children, would be needed to achieve herd protection. Even without herd protection, vaccines are highly effective in reducing the number of deaths.