Articles: pandemics.
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Int J Environ Res Public Health · Apr 2020
Early Transmission Dynamics of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Nigeria.
On 31 December 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) was notified of a novel coronavirus disease in China that was later named COVID-19. On 11 March 2020, the outbreak of COVID-19 was declared a pandemic. The first instance of the virus in Nigeria was documented on 27 February 2020. ⋯ The estimated reproduction number was 4.98 (95% CrI: 2.65-8.41) at day 22 (19 March 2020), peaking at 5.61 (95% credible interval (CrI): 3.83-7.88) at day 25 (22 March 2020). The median reproduction number over the study period was 2.71 and the latest value on 11 April 2020, was 1.42 (95% CrI: 1.26-1.58). These 45-day estimates suggested that cases of COVID-19 in Nigeria have been remarkably lower than expected and the preparedness to detect needs to be shifted to stop local transmission.
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After COVID-19 pandemia we have to think how to rebuild our national health care system. Balance between health measures and social consequences, reformulation of the chain of command during emergency, clear guidelines for territorial medicine, census of health system are initial points of debate to carry on.