Articles: pandemics.
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What will be the global impact of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19)? Answering this question requires accurate forecasting the spread of confirmed cases as well as analysis of the number of deaths and recoveries. Forecasting, however, requires ample historical data. At the same time, no prediction is certain as the future rarely repeats itself in the same way as the past. ⋯ Assuming that the data used is reliable and that the future will continue to follow the past pattern of the disease, our forecasts suggest a continuing increase in the confirmed COVID-19 cases with sizable associated uncertainty. The risks are far from symmetric as underestimating its spread like a pandemic and not doing enough to contain it is much more severe than overspending and being over careful when it will not be needed. This paper describes the timeline of a live forecasting exercise with massive potential implications for planning and decision making and provides objective forecasts for the confirmed cases of COVID-19.
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This study is to investigate the risk prediction of severe or critical events of COVID-19 in older adults in China and provide the evidence to support the management of older adults with COVID-19. ⋯ D-dimer and CD4 cells either by themselves or in combination have demonstrated predictive value in risk stratification as well as established the prognosis of severe or critical illness in older adults with COVID-19.
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Many different countries have been under lockdown or extreme social distancing measures to control the spread of COVID-19. The potentially far-reaching side effects of these measures have not yet been fully understood. In this study we analyse the results of a multi-country survey conducted in Italy (N = 3,504), Spain (N = 3,524) and the United Kingdom (N = 3,523), with two separate analyses. ⋯ To quantify the size of this affected population, we compare its magnitude with the number of people affected by COVID-19 using measures of susceptibility, vulnerability and behavioural change collected in the same questionnaire. We find that the concern for the economy and for "the way out" of the lockdown is diffuse and there is evidence of minor underreporting. Additionally, we estimate that around 42.8% of the populations in the three countries are at high risk of stress, anxiety, and depression, based on their level of economic vulnerability and their exposure to a negative economic shock.
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The COVID-19 pandemic is changing clinical practice in neurology, after the governments decided the introduction of social distancing and interruption of medical non-emergency services in many countries. Teleneurology is an effective tool for the remote evaluation of patients but its adoption for frontotemporal lobar dementia (FTD) is in a preliminary stage. ⋯ The study was conducted in Italy, one of the countries hit particularly hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, with interruption of all non-emergency medical services. Our study indicates that telemedicine is a valid tool to triage patients with FTD to increase practice outreach and efficiency.