Articles: pandemics.
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Forecasting the extent of the domestic health risk of epidemics by mathematical modeling is a useful tool for evaluating the feasibility of policies for controlling outbreaks. The objective of this study was to develop a time-dependent dynamic simulation model to forecast the COVID-19 autumn-winter outbreak in the metropolitan area of Buenos Aires, and to assess the effect of social distancing on epidemic spread. The model used was the "Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered" framework which incorporated appropriate compartments relevant to interventions such as quarantine, isolation and treatment. ⋯ The maximum peak was expected to appear between May 8 and Jul 8 depending on the quarantine strategy, and the average number of infectious symptomatic cases were 46 840, 30 494, 23 164, 16 179, and 13 196 when 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, and 50% of the population remained in a 5-month-term continuous quarantine, respectively. Only mandatory quarantine was able to delay the maximum peak of infection and significantly reduce the total number of infected individuals and deaths at a 150-day term. The interruption of the quarantine before 120 days of its beginning could generate an even more serious outbreak 30 days later, and surpass the scarce medical resources available for the intensive care of critically-ill patients.
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J Prim Care Community Health · Jan 2020
Prevalence of Coronavirus Antibody Among First Responders in Lubbock, Texas.
The ongoing coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has a major impact on first responders. Scarce personal protective equipment (PPE) has forced them to conserve and reuse some of their PPE. The efficacy of these practices in preventing transmission of COVID-19 from patients to first responders is unclear. There are limited data on the prevalence of antibodies specific for COVID-19 exposure in these front-line workers. ⋯ The prevalence of IgG specific antibodies to COVID-19 was much lower than expected in our study population despite high sensitivity and specificity of the test reagent. The most likely explanations for this finding include limited exposure, inadequate time for a IgG response, possible clearance of COVID-19 infection locally by the respiratory tract IgA defense system without eliciting a systemic IgG response, and short persistence of IgG antibodies in mild or asymptomatic cases.
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The increase in organisms transference and infectious pandemics across the globe have been accelerated by an increase in travel, international exchange and global changes in earth's climate. COVID-19, a virus caused by the novel coronavirus that was initially identified on December 2019, in Wuhan city of China is currently affecting 146 territories, states and countries raising distress, panic and increasing anxiety in individuals exposed to the (actual or supposed) peril of the virus across the globe. Fundamentally, these concerns ascend with all infections, including those of flu and other agents, and the same worldwide safeguards are compulsory and suggested for protection and the prevention of further diffusion. However, media has underlined COVID-19 as rather an exclusive threat, which has added to panic and stress in masses which can lead to several mental health issues like anxiety, obsessive compulsive disorder and post-traumatic stress disorder which should be contained immediately in its initial phases.
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Cancer care is significantly impacted by the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Our objective was to evaluate the early effects of the pandemic on the emotional well-being of oncology providers across the United States and explore factors associated with anxiety and depression symptoms. ⋯ The perceived degree of interference with clinical practice along with personal concerns about COVID-19 were significantly associated with both anxiety and depression among oncology physicians in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings highlight factors associated with and sources of psychological distress to be addressed to protect the well-being of oncology physicians.
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Wellcome open research · Jan 2020
Seasonality and immunity to laboratory-confirmed seasonal coronaviruses (HCoV-NL63, HCoV-OC43, and HCoV-229E): results from the Flu Watch cohort study.
Background: There is currently a pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. The intensity and duration of this first and second waves in the UK may be dependent on whether SARS-CoV-2 transmits more effectively in the winter than the summer and the UK Government response is partially built upon the assumption that those infected will develop immunity to reinfection in the short term. In this paper we examine evidence for seasonality and immunity to laboratory-confirmed seasonal coronavirus (HCoV) from a prospective cohort study in England. ⋯ Eight participants had two confirmed infections, of which none had the same strain twice. Conclusion: Our results provide evidence that HCoV infection in England is most intense in winter, but that there is a small amount of ongoing transmission during summer periods. We found some evidence of immunity against homologous reinfection.