Articles: pandemics.
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Bundesgesundheitsblatt Gesundheitsforschung Gesundheitsschutz · Apr 2016
Review Meta Analysis[Influenza pandemic deaths in Germany from 1918 to 2009. Estimates based on literature and own calculations].
Estimation of the number of deaths as a consequence of the influenza pandemics in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries (i.e. 1918-1919, 1957-1958, 1968-1970 and 2009) is a challenge worldwide and also in Germany. After conducting a systematic literature search complemented by our own calculations, values and estimates for all four pandemics were collated and evaluated. ⋯ We have proposed plausible estimates of pandemic-related excess number of deaths for the last four pandemics as well as excess mortality in Germany. The heterogeneity among pandemics is large with a variation factor of more than 1000. Possible explanations include characteristics of the virus or host (immunity), social conditions, status of the healthcare system and medical advances.
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Zika virus (ZIKV) is an emerging arbovirus of the Flaviviridae family and is related to dengue, Chikungunya, West Nile, yellow fever, and Japanese encephalitis viruses. ZIKV was first discovered in Uganda in 1947. Different species of mosquito from the Aedes genus, mainly A. aegypti and A. albopictus are the vectors responsible for ZIKV infection in humans. ⋯ However, all this is set to change with its rapid spread in the Western hemisphere and suspected complications particularly microcephaly in newborn babies with ZIKV infected mothers. ZIKV is expected to substantially add to both short-term and long-term economic burden of the effected countries. Due to the large number of people travelling across the borders and some reported cases of transmission of ZIKV via contaminated blood, screening and identification of asymptomatic infected individuals are important.
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Reports of high rates of primary microcephaly and Guillain-Barré syndrome associated with Zika virus infection in French Polynesia and Brazil have raised concerns that the virus circulating in these regions is a rapidly developing neuropathic, teratogenic, emerging infectious public health threat. There are no licensed medical countermeasures (vaccines, therapies or preventive drugs) available for Zika virus infection and disease. The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) predicts that Zika virus will continue to spread and eventually reach all countries and territories in the Americas with endemic Aedes mosquitoes. This paper reviews the status of the Zika virus outbreak, including medical countermeasure options, with a focus on how the epidemiology, insect vectors, neuropathology, virology and immunology inform options and strategies available for medical countermeasure development and deployment. ⋯ Multiple information sources were employed to support the review. These included publically available literature, patents, official communications, English and Lusophone lay press. Online surveys were distributed to physicians in the US, Mexico and Argentina and responses analyzed. Computational epitope analysis as well as infectious disease outbreak modeling and forecasting were implemented. Field observations in Brazil were compiled and interviews conducted with public health officials.
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Novel influenza viruses continue to emerge, posing zoonotic and potentially pandemic threats, such as with avian influenza A H7N9. Although closure of live poultry markets (LPMs) in mainland China stopped H7N9 outbreaks temporarily, closures are difficult to sustain, in view of poultry production and marketing systems in China. ⋯ In view of evidence that H7N9 is now endemic in over half of the provinces in mainland China and will continue to cause recurrent zoonotic disease in the winter months, such interventions should receive high priority in China and other Asian countries at risk of H7N9 through cross-border poultry movements. Such generic measures are likely to reduce known and future threats of zoonotic influenza.
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Zika virus (family Flaviviridae) is an emerging arbovirus. Spread by Aedes mosquitoes, it was first discovered in Uganda in 1947, and later in humans elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa, arriving in south-east Asia at latest by the mid-twentieth century. ⋯ Its clinical profile is that of a dengue-like febrile illness, but associations with Guillain-Barré syndrome and microcephaly have appeared recently. The final geographical range and ultimate clinical impact of Zika virus are still a matter for speculation.