Articles: sepsis.
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When comparing outcomes after sepsis, it is essential to account for patient case mix to make fair comparisons. We developed a model to assess risk-adjusted 30-day mortality in the Michigan Hospital Medicine Safety sepsis initiative (HMS-Sepsis). ⋯ The HMS-Sepsis mortality model showed strong discrimination and adequate calibration and reclassified one-third of hospitals to a different performance category from unadjusted mortality. Based on its strong performance, the HMS-Sepsis mortality model may aid in fair hospital benchmarking, assessment of temporal changes, and observational causal inference analysis.
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Because 20-30% of patients with sepsis deteriorate to critical illness, biomarkers that provide accurate early prognosis may identify which patients need more intensive treatment versus safe early discharge. The objective was to test the performance of sVEGFR2, suPAR and PCT, alone or combined with clinical signs and symptoms, for the prediction of clinical deterioration. This prospective observational study enrolled patients with suspected infection who met SIRS criteria without organ dysfunction (delta SOFA <2 from baseline) from 16 emergency departments. ⋯ They had lower sVEGFR2 level (6.17 [5.00-7.40] vs 6.52 [5.40-7.84], p=0.024), higher circulating suPAR (5.25 [3.86-7.50] vs 4.18 [3.16-5.68], p<0.001) and higher PCT level (0.32 [0.08-1.80] vs 0.18 [0.05-0.98], p=0.004). suPAR demonstrated superior performance (AUC=0.65 [0.60-0.70]), compared to other biomarkers (PCT, AUC=0.57 [0.52-0.62] and sVEGFR2, AUC=0.58 [0.53-0.64]). Maximum accuracy was achieved from the combination of clinical information, sVEGFR2 and suPAR, yielding an AUC of 0.74 [0.69-0.78] and NPV 0.90 [0.88-0.94]. sVEGFR2 and suPAR were insufficiently accurate to rule out clinical deterioration. Panels of biomarkers will likely be needed to capture the heterogeneous mechanistic pathways involved in sepsis-related organ failure.