• Steven Paling, Jennifer Lambert, Jasper Clouting, Júlia González-Esquerré, and Toby Auterson.
• Economics team, NHS Improvement, London, UK steven.paling@nhs.net.
• Emerg Med J. 2020 Dec 1; 37 (12): 781-786.

BackgroundLong lengths of stay (also called waiting times) in emergency departments (EDs) are associated with higher patient mortality and worse outcomes.ObjectiveTo add to the literature using high-frequency data from a large number of hospitals to analyse factors associated with long waiting times, including exploring non-linearities for 'tipping points'.MethodsMultivariate ordinary least squares regressions with fixed effects were used to analyse factors associated with the proportion of patients in EDs in England waiting more than 4 hours to be seen, treated and admitted or discharged. Daily situation reports (Sitrep), hospital episode statistics and electronic staffing records data over 90 days between December 2016 and February 2017 were used for all 138 English NHS healthcare providers with a major ED.ResultsHigher inpatient bed occupancy was correlated with longer ED waiting times, with a non-linear association. In a full hospital, with 100% bed occupancy, the proportion of patients who remained in the ED for more than 4 hours was 9 percentage points higher (95% CI 7.5% to 11.1%) than with an 85% occupancy level. For each percentage point change in the following factors, the proportion of ED stays over 4 hours also increased: more inpatients with hospital length of stay over 21 days (0.07%, 95% CI 0.008% to 0.13%); higher emergency admissions (0.08%, 95% CI 0.06% to 0.10%); and lower discharges relative to admissions on the same day (0.04%, 95% CI 0.02% to 0.06%), the following day (0.05%, 95% CI 0.03% to 0.06%) and at 2 days (0.05%, 95% CI 0.04% to 0.07%).ConclusionsThese results suggest that tackling patient flow and capacity in the wider hospital, particularly very high bed occupancy levels and patient discharge, is important to reduce ED waiting times and improve patient outcomes.© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.

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