• Carlos M Campos, David van Klaveren, Vasim Farooq, Charles A Simonton, Arie-Pieter Kappetein, Joseph F Sabik, Ewout W Steyerberg, Gregg W Stone, Patrick W Serruys, and EXCEL Trial Investigators.
• Erasmus University Medical Center, s-Gravendijkwal 230, Rotterdam 3015, The Netherlands Heart Institute (InCor), University of São Paulo Medical School, Sao Paulo, Brazil.
• Eur. Heart J. 2015 May 21; 36 (20): 1231-41.

AimsTo prospectively validate the SYNTAX Score II and forecast the outcomes of the randomized Evaluation of the Xience Everolimus-Eluting Stent Versus Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery for Effectiveness of Left Main Revascularization (EXCEL) Trial.Methods And ResultsEvaluation of the Xience Everolimus Eluting Stent vs. Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery for Effectiveness of Left Main Revascularization is a prospective, randomized multicenter trial designed to establish the efficacy and safety of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with the everolimus-eluting stent compared with coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery in subjects with unprotected left-main coronary artery (ULMCA) disease and low-intermediate anatomical SYNTAX scores (<33). After completion of patient recruitment in EXCEL, the SYNTAX Score II was prospectively applied to predict 4-year mortality in the CABG and PCI arms. The 95% prediction intervals (PIs) for mortality were computed using simulation with bootstrap resampling (10 000 times). For the entire study cohort, the 4-year predicted mortalities were 8.5 and 10.5% in the PCI and CABG arms, respectively [odds ratios (OR) 0.79; 95% PI 0.43-1.50). In subjects with low (≤22) anatomical SYNTAX scores, the predicted OR was 0.69 (95% PI 0.34-1.45); in intermediate anatomical SYNTAX scores (23-32), the predicted OR was 0.93 (95% PI 0.53-1.62). Based on 4-year mortality predictions in EXCEL, clinical characteristics shifted long-term mortality predictions either in favour of PCI (older age, male gender and COPD) or CABG (younger age, lower creatinine clearance, female gender, reduced left ventricular ejection fraction).ConclusionThe SYNTAX Score II indicates at least an equipoise for long-term mortality between CABG and PCI in subjects with ULMCA disease up to an intermediate anatomical complexity. Both anatomical and clinical characteristics had a clear impact on long-term mortality predictions and decision making between CABG and PCI.Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2015. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

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