• C U Chae, M A Pfeffer, R J Glynn, G F Mitchell, J O Taylor, and C H Hennekens.
• Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA 02215-1204, USA. chae.claudia@mgh.harvard.edu
• JAMA. 1999 Feb 17; 281 (7): 634639634-9.

ContextArterial stiffness increases with age. Thus, pulse pressure, an index of arterial stiffening, may predict congestive heart failure (CHF) in the elderly.ObjectiveTo study prospectively the association between pulse pressure and risk of CHF.DesignProspective cohort study.SettingThe community-based East Boston Senior Health Project, East Boston, Mass.PatientsA total of 1621 men and women (mean [SD] age, 77.9 [5.0] years) free of CHF who had blood pressure measurements taken in 1988-1989 and were followed up for 3.8 years.Main Outcome MeasureIncidence of CHF as ascertained by hospital discharge diagnosis (n = 208) and death certificates (n = 13).ResultsAfter controlling for age, sex, mean arterial pressure, history of coronary heart disease, diabetes mellitus, atrial fibrillation, valvular heart disease, and antihypertensive medication use, pulse pressure was an independent predictor of CHF. For each 10-mm Hg elevation in pulse pressure, there was a 14% increase in risk of CHF (95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.24; P = .003). Those in the highest tertile of pulse pressure (>67 mm Hg) had a 55% increased risk of CHF (P=.02) compared with those in the lowest (<54 mm Hg). Pulse pressure was more predictive than systolic blood pressure alone and was independent of diastolic blood pressure.ConclusionPulse pressure, an easily measurable correlate of pulsatile hemodynamic load, is an independent predictor of risk of CHF in this elderly cohort.

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