• Claire Welsh, Carlos A Celis-Morales, Rosemary Brown, Daniel F Mackay, James Lewsey, Patrick B Mark, Stuart R Gray, Lyn D Ferguson, Jana J Anderson, Donald M Lyall, John G Cleland, Pardeep S Jhund, Gill Jason M R JMR Institute of Cardiovascular and Medical Sciences (C.W., C.A.C.-M., R.B., P.B.M., S.R.G., L.D.F., P.S.J., J.M.R.G., N.S., P.W.), University of Glasgow, , Jill P Pell, Naveed Sattar, and Paul Welsh.
• Institute of Cardiovascular and Medical Sciences (C.W., C.A.C.-M., R.B., P.B.M., S.R.G., L.D.F., P.S.J., J.M.R.G., N.S., P.W.), University of Glasgow, United Kingdom.
• Circulation. 2019 Aug 13; 140 (7): 542-552.

BackgroundTotal cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) measurements are central to cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment, but there is continuing debate around the utility of other lipids for risk prediction.MethodsParticipants from UK Biobank without baseline CVD and not taking statins, with relevant lipid measurements (n=346 686), were included in the primary analysis. An incident fatal or nonfatal CVD event occurred in 6216 participants (1656 fatal) over a median of 8.9 years. Associations of nonfasting lipid measurements (total cholesterol, HDL-C, non-HDL-C, direct and calculated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol [LDL-C], and apolipoproteins [Apo] A1 and B) with CVD were compared using Cox models adjusting for classical risk factors, and predictive utility was determined by the C-index and net reclassification index. Prediction was also tested in 68 649 participants taking a statin with or without baseline CVD (3515 CVD events).ResultsApoB, LDL-C, and non-HDL-C were highly correlated (r>0.90), while HDL-C was strongly correlated with ApoA1 (r=0.92). After adjustment for classical risk factors, 1 SD increase in ApoB, direct LDL-C, and non-HDL-C had similar associations with composite fatal/nonfatal CVD events (hazard ratio, 1.23, 1.20, 1.21, respectively). Associations for 1 SD increase in HDL-C and ApoA1 were also similar (hazard ratios, 0.81 [both]). Adding either total cholesterol and HDL-C, or ApoB and ApoA, to a CVD risk prediction model (C-index, 0.7378) yielded similar improvement in discrimination (C-index change, 0.0084; 95% CI, 0.0065, 0.0104, and 0.0089; 95% CI, 0.0069, 0.0109, respectively). Once total and HDL-C were in the model, no further substantive improvement was achieved with the addition of ApoB (C-index change, 0.0004; 95% CI, 0.0000, 0.0008) or any measure of LDL-C. Results for predictive utility were similar for a fatal CVD outcome, and in a discordance analysis. In participants taking a statin, classical risk factors (C-index, 0.7118) were improved by non-HDL-C (C-index change, 0.0030; 95% CI, 0.0012, 0.0048) or ApoB (C-index change, 0.0030; 95% CI, 0.0011, 0.0048). However, adding ApoB or LDL-C to a model already containing non-HDL-C did not further improve discrimination.ConclusionsMeasurement of total cholesterol and HDL-C in the nonfasted state is sufficient to capture the lipid-associated risk in CVD prediction, with no meaningful improvement from addition of apolipoproteins, direct or calculated LDL-C.

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