• Zoey Chopra, Baris Gulseren, Karan R Chhabra, Justin B Dimick, and Andrew M Ryan.
• Medical Scientist Training Program, University of Michigan Medical School, Ann Arbor, MI.
• Ann. Surg. 2023 Jan 1; 277 (1): e16e23e16-e23.

ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to evaluate associations between hospital participation in Bundled Payments for Care Improvement (BPCI) and 30-day total episode and post-acute care spending for lower extremity joint replacement (LEJR), coronary artery bypass graft (CABG), and colec-tomy.Summary Background DataBPCI has been shown to reduce spending for LEJR episodes largely from reductions in post-acute care. However, BPCI efficacy in other common elective procedures, including CABG and colec-tomy, remains unclear. It is also unknown whether post-acute care spending reductions drive total spending reductions outside of LEJR.MethodsRetrospective cohort study using 100% Medicare claims data to identify BPCI (312 total) and non-BPCI (1,977 total) acute care hospitals from January 1, 2010 to November 30, 2016 with Medicare-enrolled patient discharges for at least one of the following BPCI episodes: LEJR (454,369 episodes), CABG (107,307 episodes), or colectomy (73,717 episodes). Along with difference-in-differences (DiD) analysis, we constructed generalized synthetic controls in the presence of nonparallel trends to estimate associations between BPCI participation and 30-day total and post-acute care spending.ResultsDiD estimates indicated reduced spending for LEJR (-$541.6 [95% confidence interval (CI): -718.0 to -365.3]) and colectomy (-$582.1 [95% CI: -927.3 to -236.8]) but not CABG (-$268.9 [95% CI: -831.5 to 293.7]). Generalized synthetic control estimates indicated reduced spending for LEJR (-$795.3 [95% CI: -10,22.1 to -582.2]) but not colectomy (-$251.3 [95% CI: -997.9 to 335.2]) or CABG (-$257.8 [95% CI: -10,24.6 to 414.8]).Post-acute care comprised 42.6% of LEJR spending reductions and 53.0% of colectomy spending reductions.ConclusionsBPCI participation was associated with significant spending reductions for LEJR and colectomy but not CABG. We conclude that BPCI has episode-dependent efficacy, largely determined by post-acute care.Copyright © 2021 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.

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