• Keith J Roberts, Robert P Sutcliffe, Ravi Marudanayagam, James Hodson, John Isaac, Paolo Muiesan, Alex Navarro, Krashna Patel, Asif Jah, Sara Napetti, Anya Adair, Stefanos Lazaridis, Andreas Prachalias, Guy Shingler, Bilal Al-Sarireh, Roland Storey, Andrew M Smith, Nehal Shah, Guiseppe Fusai, Jamil Ahmed, Mohammad Abu Hilal, and Darius F Mirza.
• *University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust, Birmingham, United Kingdom †Cambridge University Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Cambridge, United Kingdom ‡Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom §Kings College Hospital, London, United Kingdom ¶Morriston Hospital Swansea, Wales, United Kingdom ‖St James' University Hospital Leeds, West Yorkshire, United Kingdom **Royal Free Hospital London, London, United Kingdom; and ††Southampton University Hospital, Hampshire, United Kingdom.
• Ann. Surg. 2015 Jun 1; 261 (6): 1191-7.

ObjectiveTo validate a preoperative predictive score of postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF). Other risk factors for POPF were sought in an attempt to improve the score.BackgroundPOPF is the major contributor to morbidity after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). A preoperative score [using body mass index (BMI) and pancreatic duct width] to predict POPF was tested upon a multicenter patient cohort to assess its performance.MethodsPatients undergoing PD at 8 UK centers were identified. The association between the score and other pre-, intra-, and postoperative variables with POPF was assessed.ResultsA total of 630 patients underwent PD with 141 occurrences of POPF (22.4%). BMI, perirenal fat thickness, pancreatic duct width on computed tomography and at operation, bilirubin, pancreatojejunostomy technique, underlying pathology, T stage, N stage, R status, and gland firmness were all significantly associated with POPF. The score predicted POPF (P < 0.001) with a higher predictive score associated with increasing severity of POPF (P < 0.001). Stepwise multivariate analysis of pre-, intra-, and postoperative variables demonstrated that only the score was consistently associated with POPF. A table correlating the risk score to actual risk of POPF was created.ConclusionsThe predictive score performed well and could not be improved. This provides opportunities for individualizing patient consent and selection, and treatment and research applications.

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