• Amy S Kelley, Kenneth E Covinsky, Rebecca J Gorges, Karen McKendrick, Evan Bollens-Lund, R Sean Morrison, and Christine S Ritchie.
• Brookdale Department of Geriatrics and Palliative Medicine, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY.
• Health Serv Res. 2017 Feb 1; 52 (1): 113-131.

ObjectiveTo create and test three prospective, increasingly restrictive definitions of serious illness.Data SourcesHealth and Retirement Study, 2000-2012.Study DesignWe evaluated subjects' 1-year outcomes from the interview date when they first met each definition: (A) one or more severe medical conditions (Condition) and/or receiving assistance with activities of daily living (Functional Limitation); (B) Condition and/or Functional Limitation and hospital admission in the last 12 months and/or residing in a nursing home (Utilization); and (C) Condition and Functional Limitation and Utilization. Definitions are increasingly restrictive, but not mutually exclusive.Data CollectionOf 11,577 eligible subjects, 5,297 met definition A; 3,151 definition B; and 1,447 definition C.Principal FindingsOne-year outcomes were as follows: hospitalization 33 percent (A), 44 percent (B), 47 percent (C); total average Medicare costs $20,566 (A), $26,349 (B), and $30,828 (C); and mortality 13 percent (A), 19 percent (B), 28 percent (C). In comparison, among those meeting no definition, 12 percent had hospitalizations, total Medicare costs averaged $7,789, and 2 percent died.ConclusionsProspective identification of older adults with serious illness is feasible using clinically accessible criteria and may be a critical step toward improving health care value. These definitions may aid clinicians and health systems in targeting patients who could benefit from additional services.© Health Research and Educational Trust.

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