• Fuhai Li, Hui Xin, Jidong Zhang, Mingqiang Fu, Jingmin Zhou, and Zhexun Lian.
• Department of Cardiology, The Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao, China.
• BMJ Open. 2021 Jul 23; 11 (7): e044779.

ObjectiveThe predictors of in-hospital mortality for intensive care units (ICUs)-admitted heart failure (HF) patients remain poorly characterised. We aimed to develop and validate a prediction model for all-cause in-hospital mortality among ICU-admitted HF patients.DesignA retrospective cohort study.Setting And ParticipantsData were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-III) database. Data on 1177 heart failure patients were analysed.MethodsPatients meeting the inclusion criteria were identified from the MIMIC-III database and randomly divided into derivation (n=825, 70%) and a validation (n=352, 30%) group. Independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality were screened using the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression models in the derivation sample. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to build prediction models in derivation group, and then validated in validation cohort. Discrimination, calibration and clinical usefulness of the predicting model were assessed using the C-index, calibration plot and decision curve analysis. After pairwise comparison, the best performing model was chosen to build a nomogram according to the regression coefficients.ResultsAmong the 1177 admissions, in-hospital mortality was 13.52%. In both groups, the XGBoost, LASSO regression and Get With the Guidelines-Heart Failure (GWTG-HF) risk score models showed acceptable discrimination. The XGBoost and LASSO regression models also showed good calibration. In pairwise comparison, the prediction effectiveness was higher with the XGBoost and LASSO regression models than with the GWTG-HF risk score model (p<0.05). The XGBoost model was chosen as our final model for its more concise and wider net benefit threshold probability range and was presented as the nomogram.ConclusionsOur nomogram enabled good prediction of in-hospital mortality in ICU-admitted HF patients, which may help clinical decision-making for such patients.© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.

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