• Sandra Alvear-Vega and Jorge Canteros-Gatica.
• SA: Contador Público y Auditor. Ph. D. Sciences de l'Education. Universidad de Talca. Talca, Chile. salvear@utalca.cl.
• Rev Salud Publica (Bogota). 2018 May 1; 20 (3): 373-377.

Objective The main objective of this work was to validate and compare the predictive capacity of mortality of the severity score systems APACHE II (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation, Score II) and SAPS III (Simplified Acute Physiology, Score III) in a sample of patients admitted to the Adult Intensive Care Unit (ICU) of the Hospital de Curicó between 2011 and 2013.Materials And Methods Analytical, observational, retrospective cohort study of consecutive cases since admission to the ICU until hospital discharge. A binary logistic regression model was used for the analysis. Out of 1 042 patients admitted to the ICU, 793 surviving patients and 249 deceased patients were included, representing 76.1% and 23.9%, respectively, of the total sample.Results The SAPS III score has a better predictive capacity than the APACHE II, according to the area under the curve and the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.81 and 0.80, respectively. Sensitivity for the SAPS III model was 0.95 and for APACHE II was 0.93. The specificity index was 0.3 for SAPS III and 0.4 for APACHE II, with a probability above 0.5.Conclusion APACHE II and SAPS III, as ICU mortality prediction indicators, have a good predictive power but low specificity.

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