• Kristina L Bajema, Kristin Berry, Elani Streja, Nallakkandi Rajeevan, Yuli Li, Pradeep Mutalik, Lei Yan, Francesca Cunningham, Denise M Hynes, Mazhgan Rowneki, Amy Bohnert, Edward J Boyko, Theodore J Iwashyna, Matthew L Maciejewski, Thomas F Osborne, Elizabeth M Viglianti, Mihaela Aslan, Grant D Huang, and George N Ioannou.
• Veterans Affairs Portland Health Care System, and Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Oregon Health & Science University, Portland, Oregon (K.L.B.).
• Ann. Intern. Med. 2023 Jun 1; 176 (6): 807816807-816.

BackgroundInformation about the effectiveness of oral antivirals in preventing short- and long-term COVID-19-related outcomes in the setting of Omicron variant transmission and COVID-19 vaccination is limited.ObjectiveTo measure the effectiveness of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir and molnupiravir for outpatient treatment of COVID-19.DesignThree retrospective target trial emulation studies comparing matched cohorts of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir versus no treatment, molnupiravir versus no treatment, and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir versus molnupiravir.SettingVeterans Health Administration (VHA).ParticipantsNonhospitalized veterans in VHA care who were at risk for severe COVID-19 and tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during January through July 2022.InterventionNirmatrelvir-ritonavir or molnupiravir pharmacotherapy.MeasurementsIncidence of any hospitalization or all-cause mortality at 30 days and from 31 to 180 days.ResultsEighty-seven percent of participants were male; the median age was 66 years, and 18% were unvaccinated. Compared with matched untreated control participants, those treated with nirmatrelvir-ritonavir (n = 9607) had lower 30-day risk for hospitalization (22.07 vs. 30.32 per 1000 participants; risk difference [RD], -8.25 [95% CI, -12.27 to -4.23] per 1000 participants) and death (1.25 vs. 5.47 per 1000 participants; RD, -4.22 [CI, -5.45 to -3.00] per 1000 participants). Among persons alive at day 31, reductions were seen in 31- to 180-day incidence of death (hazard ratio, 0.66 [CI, 0.49 to 0.89]) but not hospitalization (subhazard ratio, 0.90 [CI, 0.79 to 1.02]). Molnupiravir-treated participants (n = 3504) had lower 30-day and 31- to 180-day risks for death (3.14 vs. 13.56 per 1000 participants at 30 days; RD, -10.42 [CI, -13.49 to -7.35] per 1000 participants; hazard ratio at 31 to 180 days, 0.67 [CI, 0.48 to 0.95]) but not hospitalization. A difference in 30-day or 31- to 180-day risk for hospitalization or death was not observed between matched nirmatrelvir- or molnupiravir-treated participants.LimitationThe date of COVID-19 symptom onset for most veterans was unknown.ConclusionNirmatrelvir-ritonavir was effective in reducing 30-day hospitalization and death. Molnupiravir was associated with a benefit for 30-day mortality but not hospitalization. Further reductions in mortality from 31 to 180 days were observed with both antivirals.Primary Funding SourceU.S. Department of Veterans Affairs.

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