• James P Murphy, Rosanna Smart, Terry L Schell, Nancy Nicosia, and Timothy S Naimi.
• RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA. Electronic address: jpmurphy@rand.org.
• Am J Prev Med. 2024 Apr 9.

IntroductionAlcohol use is involved in a large proportion of homicides and suicides each year in the United States, but there is limited evidence on how policies targeting alcohol influence violence in the U.S.ContextExtant studies generally focus on individual policies in isolation of each other. This study examines of the effects of changes in states' alcohol policy restrictions on overall homicide and suicide rates and firearm-related homicide and suicide rates using a holistic measure of states' alcohol policy environments.MethodsUsing a composite measure of state-level alcohol policies (Alcohol Policy Scale) and data from the National Vital Statistics System from 2002 to 2018, this study applied a Bayesian time series model to estimate the effects of alcohol policy changes on overall and firearm-involved homicide and suicide rates. The analysis was performed in 2023 and 2024.ResultsA one standard deviation change in the Alcohol Policy Scale was associated with a 6 percent decline in homicide rates both overall (IRR=0.94; 95-percent credibility interval = [0.89, 1.00]) and for firearm homicides specifically (IRR=0.94, 95-percent CI=[0.88, 1.01]). There was no clear association of alcohol policy with suicides. The model predicts that a nationwide increase in alcohol restrictions equivalent to a shift from the 25th to 75th percentile of the scale's distribution would result in almost 1200 fewer homicides annually.ConclusionsIncreases in the restrictiveness of state-level alcohol policies are associated with reductions in homicides. More restrictive alcohol policy environments may offer an opportunity to reduce homicides.Copyright © 2024. Published by Elsevier Inc.

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