• Fengzhao Zhu, Dongqing Jia, Yaqing Zhang, Chencheng Feng, Yan Peng, Ya Ning, Xue Leng, Jianmin Li, Yue Zhou, Changqing Li, and Bo Huang.
• Department of Orthopedics, Xinqiao Hospital, Army Medical University, No. 183, Xinqiao Main Street, Shapingba District, Chongqing, 400037, People's Republic of China.
• Eur Spine J. 2024 Apr 22.

ObjectiveTubular microdiskectomy (tMD) is one of the most commonly used for treating lumbar disk herniation. However, there still patients still complain of persistent postoperative residual low back pain (rLBP) postoperatively. This study attempts to develop a nomogram to predict the risk of rLBP after tMD.MethodsThe patients were divided into non-rLBP (LBP VAS score < 2) and rLBP (LBP VAS score ≥ 2) group. The correlation between rLBP and these factors were analyzed by multivariate logistic analysis. Then, a nomogram prediction model of rLBP was developed based on the risk factors screened by multivariate analysis. The samples in the model are randomly divided into training and validation sets in a 7:3 ratio. The Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the diskrimination, calibration and clinical value of the model, respectively.ResultsA total of 14.3% (47/329) of patients have persistent rLBP. The multivariate analysis suggests that higher preoperative LBP visual analog scale (VAS) score, lower facet orientation (FO), grade 2-3 facet joint degeneration (FJD) and moderate-severe multifidus fat atrophy (MFA) are risk factors for postoperative rLBP. In the training and validation sets, the ROC curves, calibration curves, and DCAs suggested the good diskrimination, predictive accuracy between the predicted probability and actual probability, and clinical value of the model, respectively.ConclusionThis nomogram including preoperative LBP VAS score, FO, FJD and MFA can serve a promising prediction model, which will provide a reference for clinicians to predict the rLBP after tMD.© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.

10 keywords...

hide…