• Annals of surgery · Jan 2025

    Unraveling the Long-term Natural History of Branch Duct Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm: Beyond 10 years.

    • Charnwit Assawasirisin, Peter Fagenholz, Motaz Qadan, Yasmin Hernandez-Barco, Satita Aimprasittichai, Avinash Kambadakone, Mari Mino-Kenudson, Amarachi Ike, Sheng-Yin Chen, Chen Sheng, William Brugge, Andrew L Warshaw, Keith D Lillemoe, and Carlos Fernández-Del Castillo.
    • Department of Surgery, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA.
    • Ann. Surg. 2025 Jan 1; 281 (1): 154160154-160.

    ObjectiveTo describe the long-term natural history of branch duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (BD-IPMN).BackgroundThe BD-IPMN is a known precursor of pancreatic cancer, yet its long-term natural history is largely unknown.MethodsWe retrospectively reviewed patients with BD-IPMN who were followed at the Massachusetts General Hospital for at least 10 years without surgical intervention. Patient and cyst characteristics, development of worrisome features (WF), need for surgery, and malignancy were recorded. The risk of pancreatic cancer in this cohort was compared with the general population by determining the standardized incidence ratio.ResultsThree hundred sixteen patients with BD-IPMN who were followed for at least 10 years without intervention were identified. The median age was 63 years, and the median follow-up was 13.5 years (range: 10-28.8 years). Median cyst size at diagnosis was 1.2 cm (IQR: 0.8-1.7), was 1.8 cm (IQR: 1.2-2.6) at 10 years, and increased to 2.0 cm (IQR: 1.3-3.0) by the end of surveillance. At the 10-year mark, 24% of patients had WF, and by the end of surveillance, an additional 20% had developed WF or high-risk stigmata. 8.2% of patients developed pancreatic malignancy (high-grade dysplasia or invasive cancer). The standardized incidence ratio for pancreatic cancer was 9.28 (95% CI: 5.82-14.06), with almost two-thirds of invasive cancers occurring within the pancreatic cyst.ConclusionsAfter 10 years of surveillance for BD-IPMN without intervention, the disease continues to progress, and 1 of every 12 patients will develop malignancy. The risk of pancreatic cancer appears to be 9 times higher than in the comparable age-matched population.Copyright © 2024 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.

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