• R J Snijders, P Noble, N Sebire, A Souka, and K H Nicolaides.
• Harris Birthright Research Centre for Fetal Medicine, Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, King's College School of Medicine and Dentistry, London, UK.
• Lancet. 1998 Aug 1; 352 (9125): 343346343-6.

BackgroundPrenatal diagnosis of trisomy 21 currently relies on assessment of risk followed by invasive testing in the 5% of pregnancies at the highest estimated risk. Selection of the high-risk group by a combination of maternal age and second-trimester maternal serum biochemistry gives a detection rate of about 60%. We investigated assessment of risk by a combination of maternal age and fetal nuchal-translucency thickness, measured by ultrasonography at 10-14 weeks of gestation.MethodsThe risk of trisomy 21 was estimated for 96127 women of median age 31 years (range 14-49) with singleton pregnancies. Ultrasonography was done by 306 appropriately trained sonographers in 22 centres. Risk of trisomy 21 was calculated from the maternal age and gestational-age-related prevalence, multiplied by a likelihood ratio depending on the deviation from normal in nuchal-translucency thickness for crown-rump length. The distribution of risks was investigated and the sensitivity of a cut-off risk of 1 in 300 was calculated. Phenotype was assessed by fetal karyotyping or clinical examination of liveborn infants.FindingsThe estimated trisomy-21 risk, from maternal age and fetal nuchal-translucency thickness, was 1 in 300 or higher in 7907 (8.3%) of 95476 normal pregnancies, 268 (82-2%) of 326 with trisomy 21, and 253 (77.9%) of 325 with other chromosomal defects. The 5% of the study population with the highest estimated risk included 77% of trisomy-21 cases.InterpretationSelection of the high-risk group for invasive testing by this method allows the detection of about 80% of affected pregnancies. However, even this method of risk assessment requires about 30 invasive tests for identification of one affected fetus.

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