• Sandra L Taylor, Soman Sen, David G Greenhalgh, MaryBeth Lawless, Terese Curri, and Tina L Palmieri.
• Department of Public Health Sciences, University of California Davis Medical Center, Sacramento.
• JAMA Surg. 2015 May 1;150(5):450-6.

ImportanceCurrent outcome predictors for illness and injury are measured at a single time point-admission. However, patient prognosis often changes during hospitalization, limiting the usefulness of those predictions. Accurate depiction of the dynamic interaction between competing events during hospitalization may enable real-time outcome assessment.ObjectiveTo determine how the effects of burn outcome predictors (ie, age, total body surface area burn, and inhalation injury) and the outcomes of interest (ie, mortality and length of stay) vary as a function of time throughout hospitalization.Design, Setting, And ParticipantsIn this retrospective study, we used the American Burn Association's National Burn Repository, containing outcomes and patient and injury characteristics, to identify 95 579 patients admitted with an acute burn injury to 80 tertiary American Burn Association burn centers from 2000 through 2009. We applied competing risk statistical methods to analyze patient outcomes.Main Outcomes And MeasuresWe estimated the cause-specific hazard rates for death and discharge to assess how the instantaneous risk of these events changed across time. We further evaluated the varying effects of patient age, total body surface area burn, and inhalation injury on the probability of discharge and death across time.ResultsMaximum length of stay among patients who died was 270 days and 731 days among those discharged. Total body surface area, age, and inhalation injury had significant effects on the subdistribution hazard for discharge (P < .001); these effects varied across time (P < .002). Burn size (coefficient -0.046) determined early outcomes, while age (coefficient -0.034) determined outcomes later in the hospitalization. Inhalation injury (coefficient -0.622) played a variable role in survival and hospital length of stay.Conclusions And RelevanceReal-time measurement of dynamic interrelationships among burn outcome predictors using competing risk analysis demonstrated that the key factors influencing outcomes differed throughout hospitalization. Further application of this analytic technique to other injury or illness types may improve assessment of outcomes.

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