• J. Clin. Oncol. · May 2011

    Toward a rational strategy for prostate cancer screening based on long-term risk of prostate cancer metastases and death: Data from a large, unscreened, population-based cohort followed for up to 30 years.

    • H Lilja, C Savage, A Gerdtsson, T Bjork, J Manjer, P Nilsson, A Dahlin, A Bjartell, P T Scardino, D Ulmert, and A J Vickers.
    • Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY; Lund University, University Hospital UMAS, Malmö, Sweden.
    • J. Clin. Oncol. 2011 May 20; 29 (15_suppl): 4512.

    Abstract4512 Background: Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing remains controversial due to high number of men need to be screened to prevent one death. Current screening recommendations are based on few data. We analyzed PSA in archived blood plasma collected in 1974-92 as part of the Malmö Preventive Project. This is a large, representative cohort of Swedish men not subject to screening, chiefly accruing at age 44-50 (i.e. shortly before PSA is recommended to begin in US) and followed for up to 30 years. The study is a unique "natural experiment" to understand the association between early PSA and long-term risk of prostate cancer morbidity and mortality.

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