• J P Bestwick, W J Huttly, and N J Wald.
• Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, Barts and the London Queen Marys School of Medicine and Dentistry, Charterhouse Square, London EC1M 6BQ, UK. j.p.bestwick@qmul.ac.uk
• J Med Screen. 2010 Jan 1; 17 (1): 8-12.

ObjectiveTo determine whether the standard deviation of nuchal translucency (NT) measurements has decreased over time and if so to revise the estimate and assess the effect of revising the estimate of the standard deviation on the performance of antenatal screening for Down's syndrome.SettingData from a routine antenatal screening programme for Down's syndrome comprising 106 affected and 22,640 unaffected pregnancies.MethodsNT measurements were converted into multiple of the median (MoM) values and standard deviations of log(10) MoM values were calculated in affected and unaffected pregnancies. The screening performance of the Combined and Integrated tests (that include NT measurement) were compared using previous and revised estimates of the standard deviation.ResultsThe standard deviation of NT in unaffected pregnancies has reduced over time (from 1998 to 2008) (e.g. from 0.1329 to 0.1105 [log(10) MoM] at 12-13 completed weeks of pregnancy, reducing the variance by about 30%). This was not observed in affected pregnancies. Compared with results from the serum, urine and ultrasound screening study (SURUSS), use of the revised NT standard deviations in unaffected pregnancies resulted in an approximate 20% decrease in the false-positive rate for a given detection rate; for example, from 2.1% to 1.7% (a 19% reduction) at a 90% detection rate using the Integrated test with first trimester markers measured at 11 completed weeks' gestation and from 4.4% to 3.5% (a 20% reduction) at an 85% detection rate using the Combined test at 11 completed weeks.ConclusionsThe standard deviation of NT has declined over time and using the revised estimates improves the screening performance of tests that incorporate an NT measurement.

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