• Alexandre Tran, Maher Matar, Ewout W Steyerberg, Jacinthe Lampron, Monica Taljaard, and Christian Vaillancourt.
• School of Epidemiology, Public Health and Preventive Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. aletran@toh.ca.
• Syst Rev. 2017 Apr 13; 6 (1): 80.

BackgroundHemorrhage is a major cause of early mortality following a traumatic injury. The progression and consequences of significant blood loss occur quickly as death from hemorrhagic shock or exsanguination often occurs within the first few hours. The mainstay of treatment therefore involves early identification of patients at risk for hemorrhagic shock in order to provide blood products and control of the bleeding source if necessary. The intended scope of this review is to identify and assess combinations of predictors informing therapeutic decision-making for clinicians during the initial trauma assessment. The primary objective of this systematic review is to identify and critically assess any existing multivariable models predicting significant traumatic hemorrhage that requires intervention, defined as a composite outcome comprising massive transfusion, surgery for hemostasis, or angiography with embolization for the purpose of external validation or updating in other study populations. If no suitable existing multivariable models are identified, the secondary objective is to identify candidate predictors to inform the development of a new prediction rule.MethodsWe will search the EMBASE and MEDLINE databases for all randomized controlled trials and prospective and retrospective cohort studies developing or validating predictors of intervention for traumatic hemorrhage in adult patients 16 years of age or older. Eligible predictors must be available to the clinician during the first hour of trauma resuscitation and may be clinical, lab-based, or imaging-based. Outcomes of interest include the need for surgical intervention, angiographic embolization, or massive transfusion within the first 24 h. Data extraction will be performed independently by two reviewers. Items for extraction will be based on the CHARMS checklist. We will evaluate any existing models for relevance, quality, and the potential for external validation and updating in other populations. Relevance will be described in terms of appropriateness of outcomes and predictors. Quality criteria will include variable selection strategies, adequacy of sample size, handling of missing data, validation techniques, and measures of model performance.DiscussionThis systematic review will describe the availability of multivariable prediction models and summarize evidence regarding predictors that can be used to identify the need for intervention in patients with traumatic hemorrhage.Systematic Review RegistrationPROSPERO CRD42017054589.

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