• J Emerg Med · Feb 2018

    Multicenter Study

    HEART Score and Stress Test Emergency Department Bayesian Decision Scheme: Results from the Acute Care Diagnostic Collaboration.

    • Naureen Farook, L Cochon, A D Bode, B P Langer, and A A Baez.
    • Department of Internal Medicine/Emergency Medicine, Henry Ford Health System, Detroit, Michigan.
    • J Emerg Med. 2018 Feb 1; 54 (2): 147-155.

    BackgroundAccurate identification of patients at risk of major adverse cardiac events (MACE) places a substantial burden on emergency physicians (EPs). Bayesian nomogram for risk stratification in low- to intermediate-risk cardiovascular patients has not been investigated previously.ObjectiveThe objective of this study was to develop a comparative diagnostic model using Bayesian statistics for exercise treadmill test (ETT) and stress echocardiogram (ECHO) to calculate post-test diagnostic risk of MACE using HEART (history, electrocardiogram, age, risk factors, and troponin) risk score as predictor of pretest probability.MethodsStratification was made by applying HEART scores for the prediction of MACE. Likelihood ratios (LR) were calculated using pooled sensitivity and specificity of ETT and ECHO from the American College of Cardiology Foundation/American Heart Association systematic review. Post-test probabilities were obtained after inserting HEART score and LR into Bayesian nomogram. Analysis of variance was used to assess statistical association.ResultsPositive LR (LR+) for ETT was 4.56 and negative LR (LR-) was 0.27; for ECHO, LR+ 5.65 and LR- 0.15. Bayesian statistical modeling post-test probabilities for LR+ and low HEART risk yielded a post-test probability for ETT of 7.75% and 9.09% for ECHO; intermediate risk gave 47.62% and 52.63%, respectively. For LR-, low HEART risk post-test probability for ETT was 0.46% and for ECHO 0.26%; intermediate risk probabilities were 4.48% and 2.49%, respectively. LR- was statistically significant in ruling out MACE with ECHO (p < 0.001), but no significant differences were seen for LR+ (p = 0.64).ConclusionsThis Bayesian analysis demonstrated slight superiority of stress ECHO over ETT in low- and intermediate-risk patients in ruling out MACE.Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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