• R Søgaard and J S Lindholt.
• Departments of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark.
• Br J Surg. 2018 Sep 1; 105 (10): 1283-1293.

BackgroundPopulation-based screening and intervention for abdominal aortic aneurysm, peripheral artery disease and hypertension was recently reported to reduce the relative risk of mortality among Danish men by 7 per cent. The aim of this study was to investigate the cost-effectiveness of vascular screening versus usual care (ad hoc primary care-based risk assessment) from a national health service perspective.MethodsA cost-effectiveness evaluation was conducted alongside an RCT involving all men from a region in Denmark (50 156) who were allocated to screening (25 078) or no screening (25 078) and followed for up to 5 years. Mobile nurse teams provided screening locally and, for individuals with positive test results, referrals were made to general practices or hospital-based specialized centres for vascular surgery. Intention-to-treat-based, censoring-adjusted incremental costs (2014 euros), life-years and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were estimated using Lin's average estimator method. Incremental net benefit was estimated using Willan's estimator and sensitivity analyses were conducted.ResultsThe cost of screening was estimated at €148 (95 per cent c.i. 126 to 169), and the effectiveness at 0·022 (95 per cent c.i. 0·006 to 0·038) life-years and 0·069 (0·054 to 0·083) QALYs, generating average costs of €6872 per life-year and €2148 per QALY. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of €40 000 per QALY, the probabilities of cost-effectiveness were 98 and 99 per cent respectively. The probability of cost-effectiveness was 71 per cent when all the sensitivity analyses were combined into one conservative scenario.ConclusionVascular screening appears to be cost-effective and compares favourably with current screening programmes.© 2018 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

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