• Paul F Pinsky, Christina R Bellinger, and David P Miller.
• 1 Division of Cancer Prevention, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, USA.
• J Med Screen. 2018 Jun 1; 25 (2): 110-112.

AbstractObjectives Low-dose computed tomography lung cancer screening has been shown to reduce lung cancer mortality but has a high false-positive rate. The precision medicine approach to low-dose computed tomography screening assesses subjects' benefits versus harms based on their personal lung cancer risk, where harms include false-positive screens and resultant invasive procedures. We assess the relationship between lung cancer risk and the rate of false-positive LDCT screens. Methods The National Lung Screening Trial randomized high-risk subjects to three annual screens with low-dose computed tomography or chest radiographs. Following the completion of National Lung Screening Trial, the Lung CT Screening Reporting and Data System (Lung-RADS) classification system was developed and retrospectively applied to National Lung Screening Trial low-dose computed tomography findings. The rate of false-positive screens (by Lung-RADS) and the resultant invasive procedures were examined as a function of lung cancer risk estimated by a model. Results Of 26,722 subjects randomized to the low-dose computed tomography arm, 26,309 received a baseline screen and were included in the analysis. The proportion with any false positive over three screening rounds increased from 12.9% to 25.9% from lowest to highest risk decile, and the proportion with an invasive procedure following a false positive also significantly increased from 0.7% to 2.0% from lowest to highest risk decile. Conclusion These findings indicate a need for personalized low-dose computed tomography lung cancer screening decision aids to accurately convey the benefits to harm trade-off.

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