• Brad Keogh and Thomas Monks.
• NIHR CLAHRC Wessex Data Science Hub, Faculty of Environmental and Life Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK brad.keogh@soton.ac.uk.
• Emerg Med J. 2020 Feb 1; 37 (2): 95-101.

ObjectivesThere have been claims that Delayed Transfers of Care (DTOCs) of inpatients to home or a less acute setting are related to Emergency Department (ED) crowding. In particular DTOCs were associated with breaches of the UK 4-hour waiting time target in a previously published analysis. However, the analysis has major limitations by not adjusting for the longitudinal trend of the data. The aim of this work is to investigate whether the proposition that DTOCs impact the 4-hour target requires further research.MethodEstimation of an association between two or more variables that are measured over time requires specialised statistical methods. In this study, we performed two separate analyses. First, we created two sets of artificial data with no correlation. We then added an upward trend over time and again assessed for correlation. Second, we reproduced the simple linear regression of the original study using NHS England open data of English trusts between 2010 and 2016, assessing correlation of numbers of DTOCs and ED breaches of the 4-hour target. We then reanalysed the same data using standard time series methods to remove the trend before estimating an association.ResultsAfter introducing upward trends into the uncorrelated artificial data the correlation between the two data sets increased (R2=0.00 to 0.51 respectively). We found strong evidence of longitudinal trends within the NHS data of ED breaches and DTOCs. After removal of the trends the R2 reduced from 0.50 to 0.01.ConclusionOur reanalysis found weak correlation between numbers of DTOCs and ED 4-hour target breaches. Our study does not indicate that there is no relationship between 4-hour target and DTOCs, it highlights that statistically robust evidence for this relationship does not currently exist. Further work is required to understand the relationship between breaches of the 4-hour target and numbers of DTOCs.© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.

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