• Anders Granholm, Anders Perner, Mette Krag, Peter Buhl Hjortrup, Nicolai Haase, Lars Broksø Holst, Søren Marker, Marie Oxenbøll Collet, Jensen Aksel Karl Georg AK Section of Biostatistics, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark., and Møller Morten Hylander MH Department of Intensive Care 4131, Copenhagen University Hospital-Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen, Denmark..
• Department of Intensive Care 4131, Copenhagen University Hospital-Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen, Denmark.
• BMJ Open. 2017 Mar 9; 7 (3): e015339.

IntroductionMortality prediction scores are widely used in intensive care units (ICUs) and in research, but their predictive value deteriorates as scores age. Existing mortality prediction scores are imprecise and complex, which increases the risk of missing data and decreases the applicability bedside in daily clinical practice. We propose the development and validation of a new, simple and updated clinical prediction rule: the Simplified Mortality Score for use in the Intensive Care Unit (SMS-ICU).Methods And AnalysisDuring the first phase of the study, we will develop and internally validate a clinical prediction rule that predicts 90-day mortality on ICU admission. The development sample will comprise 4247 adult critically ill patients acutely admitted to the ICU, enrolled in 5 contemporary high-quality ICU studies/trials. The score will be developed using binary logistic regression analysis with backward stepwise elimination of candidate variables, and subsequently be converted into a point-based clinical prediction rule. The general performance, discrimination and calibration of the score will be evaluated, and the score will be internally validated using bootstrapping. During the second phase of the study, the score will be externally validated in a fully independent sample consisting of 3350 patients included in the ongoing Stress Ulcer Prophylaxis in the Intensive Care Unit trial. We will compare the performance of the SMS-ICU to that of existing scores.Ethics And DisseminationWe will use data from patients enrolled in studies/trials already approved by the relevant ethical committees and this study requires no further permissions. The results will be reported in accordance with the Transparent Reporting of multivariate prediction models for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) statement, and submitted to a peer-reviewed journal.Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

19 keywords...

hide…