Wellcome open research
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Wellcome open research · Jan 2020
Seasonality and immunity to laboratory-confirmed seasonal coronaviruses (HCoV-NL63, HCoV-OC43, and HCoV-229E): results from the Flu Watch cohort study.
Background: There is currently a pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. The intensity and duration of this first and second waves in the UK may be dependent on whether SARS-CoV-2 transmits more effectively in the winter than the summer and the UK Government response is partially built upon the assumption that those infected will develop immunity to reinfection in the short term. In this paper we examine evidence for seasonality and immunity to laboratory-confirmed seasonal coronavirus (HCoV) from a prospective cohort study in England. ⋯ Eight participants had two confirmed infections, of which none had the same strain twice. Conclusion: Our results provide evidence that HCoV infection in England is most intense in winter, but that there is a small amount of ongoing transmission during summer periods. We found some evidence of immunity against homologous reinfection.
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Wellcome open research · Jan 2020
COVID-19 and Guillain-Barre Syndrome: a systematic review of case reports.
Background: Guillain-Barre Syndrome (GBS) is a neurological autoimmune disease that can lead to respiratory failure and death. Whether COVID-19 patients are at high risk of GBS is unknown. Through a systematic review of case reports, we aimed to summarize the main features of patients with GBS and COVID-19. ⋯ Although limited, preliminary evidence appears to suggest that GBS occurs after COVID-19 onset. Practitioners and investigators should have GBS in mind as they look after COVID-19 patients and conduct research on novel aspects of COVID-19. Comparison with GBS patients in the context of another viral outbreak (Zika), revealed similarities and differences that deserves further scrutiny and epidemiological studies.
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Wellcome open research · Jan 2020
Adoption and impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19.
Background: Several non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been implemented across the world to control the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. Social distancing (SD) interventions applied so far have included school closures, remote working and quarantine. These measures have been shown to have large impacts on pandemic influenza transmission. ⋯ Conclusions: The timely implementation of control measures is key to their success and must strike a balance between early enough application to reduce the peak of the epidemic and ensuring that they can be feasibly maintained for an appropriate duration. Such measures can have large societal impacts and they need to be appropriately justified to the population. As the pandemic of COVID-19 progresses, quantifying the impact of interventions will be a vital consideration for the appropriate use of mitigation strategies.
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Wellcome open research · Jan 2020
The transmissibility of novel Coronavirus in the early stages of the 2019-20 outbreak in Wuhan: Exploring initial point-source exposure sizes and durations using scenario analysis.
Background: The current novel coronavirus outbreak appears to have originated from a point-source exposure event at Huanan seafood wholesale market in Wuhan, China. There is still uncertainty around the scale and duration of this exposure event. This has implications for the estimated transmissibility of the coronavirus and as such, these potential scenarios should be explored. Methods: We used a stochastic branching process model, parameterised with available data where possible and otherwise informed by the 2002-2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak, to simulate the Wuhan outbreak. ⋯ Conclusions: Our results indicate that an R0 of less than 1 was highly unlikely unless the size of the initial exposure event was much greater than currently reported. We found that R0 estimates were comparable across scenarios with decreasing event size and increasing duration. Scenarios with a pre-intervention SARS-like serial interval resulted in a higher R0 and were equally plausible to scenarios with SARs-like serial intervals.
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Wellcome open research · Jan 2020
What settings have been linked to SARS-CoV-2 transmission clusters?
Background: Concern about the health impact of novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has resulted in widespread enforced reductions in people's movement ("lockdowns"). However, there are increasing concerns about the severe economic and wider societal consequences of these measures. Some countries have begun to lift some of the rules on physical distancing in a stepwise manner, with differences in what these "exit strategies" entail and their timeframes. ⋯ Few reports came from schools, many from households, and an increasing number were reported in hospitals and elderly care settings across Europe. Conclusions: We identified possible places that are linked to clusters of COVID-19 cases and could be closely monitored and/or remain closed in the first instance following the progressive removal of lockdown restrictions. However, in part due to the limits in surveillance capacities in many settings, the gathering of information such as cluster sizes and attack rates is limited in several ways: inherent recall bias, biased media reporting and missing data.