COPD
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Randomized Controlled Trial Multicenter Study
Physiologic variables and functional status independently predict COPD hospitalizations and emergency department visits in patients with severe COPD.
Using clinical and claims records from the National Emphysema Treatment Trial, we sought to identify factors that accurately predicted COPD exacerbations. This prospective cohort study consisted of subjects with severe emphysema randomized to medical therapy. Exacerbations were defined as a hospitalization or emergency department visit for COPD. ⋯ In 610 participants, 26.6% had a COPD exacerbation over 1-year follow-up. In a model incorporating spirometry, PaO2, dyspnea, prior exacerbations and co-morbidity, a 5-point decrement in percent predicted FEV1 (OR 1.16, 95% CI 1.00-1.34) and a 5-point worsening in SOBQ (OR 1.08, 1.02-1.14) independently predicted exacerbations (AUC for full model 0.68). Combining physiologic variables, dyspnea, prior exacerbations and co-morbidity may be useful in identifying patients at high risk for COPD exacerbations.