IEEE journal of biomedical and health informatics
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IEEE J Biomed Health Inform · Mar 2021
Predicting Discharge Destination of Critically Ill Patients Using Machine Learning.
Decision making about discharge destination for critically ill patients is a highly subjective and multidisciplinary process, heavily reliant on the ICU care team, patients and their caregivers' preferences, resource demand, staffing, and bed capacity. Timely identification of discharge disposition can be useful in care planning, and as a surrogate for functional status outcomes following critical illness. Although prior research has proposed methods to predict discharge destination in a critical care setting, they are limited in scope and in the generalizability of their findings. ⋯ Amongst all of the tested models, XGBoost provided the best discrimination performance with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 90% (recall: 71%, F1: 70%). Our findings indicate that the variables used in the APACHE IV model for estimating patient severity of illness are better predictors of hospital discharge destination than the APACHE IV score alone. Incorporating these models into clinical decision support systems may assist patients, caregivers, and the ICU team to begin disposition planning as early as possible during the hospitalization.