Journal of medical virology
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Multicenter Study
Simple nomogram based on initial laboratory data for predicting the probability of ICU transfer of COVID-19 patients: Multicenter retrospective study.
This retrospective, multicenter study investigated the risk factors associated with intensive care unit (ICU) admission and transfer in 461 adult patients with confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) hospitalized from 22 January to 14 March 2020 in Hunan, China. Outcomes of ICU and non-ICU patients were compared, and a simple nomogram for predicting the probability of ICU transfer after hospital admission was developed based on initial laboratory data using a Cox proportional hazards regression model. Differences in laboratory indices were observed between patients admitted to the ICU and those who were not admitted. ⋯ The lymphocyte count and albumin level were negatively associated with mortality (HR = 0.08 and 0.86, respectively). The developed model provides a means for identifying, at hospital admission, the subset of patients with COVID-19 who are at high risk of progression and would require transfer to the ICU within 3 and 7 days after hospitalization. This method of early patient triage allows a more effective allocation of limited medical resources.