Journal of health economics
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The CMS-HCC risk adjustment system for Medicare Advantage (MA) plans calculates weights, which are effectively relative prices, for beneficiaries with different observable characteristics. To do so it uses the relative amounts spent per beneficiary with those characteristics in Traditional Medicare (TM). For multiple reasons one might expect relative amounts in MA to differ from TM, thereby making some beneficiaries more profitable to treat than others. ⋯ Nor, using the margins from Plan 1, the more typical plan, do we find evidence of overrepresentation of high margin HCC's in Medicare more generally. These results do not permit a conclusion on overall social efficiency, but we note that selection according to margin could be socially efficient. In addition, our findings suggest there are omitted interaction terms in the risk adjustment model that Medicare currently uses.