Journal of bone and mineral research : the official journal of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research
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J. Bone Miner. Res. · Feb 2011
Randomized Controlled TrialEvaluation of the FRAX and Garvan fracture risk calculators in older women.
Fracture risk calculators estimate the absolute risk of osteoporotic fractures. We investigated the performance of the FRAX and Garvan Institute fracture risk calculators in healthy, older, New Zealand, postmenopausal women with normal bone mineral density (BMD) for their age. Fractures were ascertained in women initially enrolled in a 5-year trial of calcium supplements and followed on average for 8.8 years. ⋯ FRAX without BMD underestimated osteoporotic and overestimated hip fractures. In summary, none of the calculators provided better discrimination than models based on age and BMD, and their discriminative ability was only moderate, which may limit their clinical utility. The calibration varied, suggesting that the calculators should be validated in local cohorts before clinical use.